18 Feb 2012


February 18, 2012

Edited by S W T Read
Is this the beginning of the end for Julia
Does she have a Mark Anthony in her back pocket?

Popular ... Kevin Rudd. <em>Illustration: Rocco Fazzari</em>
Kevin Rudd will become the leader, not because he's made a compelling case but because Julia Gillard cannot hold the confidence of her caucus.

One of the most remarkable facts of the collapse of the Gillard government's internal support is that it is happening under its own weight.

Kevin Rudd is not campaigning for the leadership. He certainly wants it ,but when he campaigned for the leadership last time, he gave big policy speeches, wrote philosophical essays, set up caucus study groups, lobbied union leaders, buddied up to newspaper editors.

He had long conversations with many members of the caucus aimed at winning their votes with the prospect of a better electoral future, exciting policy offerings and sometimes the hint of promotion.

This time? Unless it's directly in the line of his work as Foreign Affairs Minister, Rudd has given no speeches, written no essays, set up no study groups, lobbied no union leaders, not spoken to newspaper editors.

He held only the most cautious and circumspect conversations with caucus members outside his inner circle.

If Rudd has been campaigning, it has been a silent campaign. He is the stealth bomber you can't see until it drops it's bombs.

We should know soon if he has taken off, with a full bomb load, I suppose its like all flights, it depends on the weather.

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