21 Jul 2013

Labors only threat to winning is the ghost who walks


The only fear for Labor is the second coming.
The danger, the Liberal Party will do the unthinkable, they will change leaders.
Two pollsters have conducted voting-intentions surveys in the last two weeks with the hypothetical Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader and they came up with pretty much the same thing: neck-and-neck after preferences under the current leaders, but the Coalition about 15 per cent ahead under the Ghost who walks Turnbull.
Polls like that should be taken with a grain of salt, people don’t really know how they’ll feel, this is in an imaginary situation.
However those about Rudd have so far proved pretty right.
There is something about swinging voters, many of them are of a mind to vote Coalition in 2013 but have reservations about Tony Abbott as prime minister.
Abbott has been in the job for three and a half years, a long time.
Even the most highly-regarded opposition leader would lose their gloss in that time and Tony  has never been high gloss, in fact at the moment its more like white wash. He was never very highly-regarded as a future PM even by his colleagues.
The opposition really—really— wants to win this election, and with that in mind, even trading a likely victory for a close-to-certain one would be a powerful motivator for change.
They would not want to die wondering.
This is no different to Bill Hayden with Bob Hawke in 1983.
If the election is postponed until October—meaning parliament is recalled—and the polls don’t improve much soon for the Coalition, the opposition probably will do the dirty deed "leadership indeed."